Before the Rain Arrives

In the Bay Area, we have a habit of treating winter storms as a surprise, even when we have spent months talking about them. We watch the forecast, buy groceries at the last minute, and then act personally offended when a fallen tree takes out the power.

This year, we have time to do better. NOAA says El Niño is strengthening and gives it a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter. That raises concern, but it does not tell us which Bay Area street will flood or when the worst storm will arrive.

Preparation starts with the unglamorous things we keep meaning to do. Clear gutters and drains. Check for roof leaks before the ceiling answers the question for you. Look at the trees near your home, and have a qualified professional deal with dangerous limbs. If water has pooled around your property before, find out where it came from and what you can reasonably fix. Photograph important belongings, keep documents where you can reach them, and review your insurance now.

Most homeowners and renters policies do not cover flooding, and a new federal flood policy generally takes 30 days to begin.

Then think about what happens when ordinary life stops cooperating. Keep medications, drinking water, food, flashlights, batteries, a charged power bank, and supplies for children or pets where you can find them in the dark. Sign up for your county’s emergency alerts. Know another way home if your usual road floods, and decide where your household would go if officials told you to leave. If someone in your family depends on powered medical equipment, make that backup plan specific. “We’ll figure it out” is much less reassuring when the power is already out.

During a storm, the sensible choice may be to stay put, change plans, or leave early. Watch local warnings, especially if you live near a creek, below a steep slope, or along a road that floods repeatedly. Never drive into floodwater to see whether your car can make it. It is a car, not a boat, and you do not need to conduct the experiment. If you are told to evacuate, go while the route is still open.

Coping also means remembering that preparation costs money and time. A renter cannot repair a roof. An hourly worker may not be able to miss a shift. An older neighbor may need help getting supplies or understanding an alert. Check on people before the storm, share reliable information, and offer the practical help you can give. Afterward, photograph damage before cleanup, avoid standing water and downed lines, and ask for help early if your home is unsafe.

El Niño is a forecast about a climate pattern, not a script for every Bay Area neighborhood. We can leave room for uncertainty and still take the warning seriously. The best time to prepare is while the gutters are dry, the lights are on, and getting ready is merely inconvenient.